Part 3-How will the arrival of the Taliban affect other countries? An overview
Chinese leaders worry about the spread of instability from Afghanistan into adjacent regions, including spill over into China.
China has taken a barbaric stance on the people in the Muslim-majority Xinjiang province. Even Pakistan, a great supporter of Muslims has also turned its back on them. Beijing will recognize the Taliban and seek ways to encourage the Taliban to be attentive to China's security concerns. Beijing will urge the Taliban to deny haven to Uyghur fighters and other groups that could destabilize Central Asia or harm Chinese interests in the region or at home.
Over time, China would welcome opportunities to benefit from Afghanistan's rich mineral deposits and incorporate Afghanistan into its Belt and Road initiative.
It looks good to China that America is weak in Afghanistan now and its days are behind it. For countries like Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and India, China can send a message that America can leave them if needed and run away. For the domestic audience, Beijing's message will be that the United States is not an object of worship. Unlike Washington, Beijing will not intervene in other country's civil wars, spill blood and leave masses behind.
The Taliban can increase terrorist activities from Kashmir to Rajasthan under the pressure of Pakistan. China hopes that due to this pressure, India can make a border agreement in favour of China.
From a hard security standpoint, Taiwan is no more vulnerable today. None of the constraints on Beijing's capacity to wage war on Taiwan has been lessened due to developments in Afghanistan.
The focus of Chinese efforts likely will be in seeking to undermine the psychological confidence of the Taiwanese people in their own future. Beijing would like to advance a narrative inside Taiwan that the United States is far and unreliable, Taiwan is isolated and alone and Taiwan's only path to peace runs through Beijing. America now need to provide a clear message to Taiwan's leaders and the public of America's resolve to ensure differences in the Taiwan strait are ultimately resolved peacefully and in a manner that reflects the will of Taiwan's people.
Link to part 1 and part 2